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European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 221, Issue 1, 16 August 2012, Pages 248-262
Shouke Wei, Hong Yang, Jinxi Song, Karim C. Abbaspour, Zongxue Xu
Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, CN-710127 Xi’an, China
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, CN-100875 Beijing, China
Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, BC-V6T 1Z4 Vancouver, Canada
Abstract
This study develops a complex system dynamics model (SD) reflecting interactions between water resources, Environmental Flow (EF) and socio-economy using SD software package “Vensim PLE”. The proposed model is employed to assess socio-economic impacts of different levels of EF allocation in the Weihe River Basin of China. Four alternative socio-economic growth patterns and four EF allocation schemes are designed to simulate those impacts. The results reveal that developed SD model performance well in reflecting the dynamic behavior of the system in the current study area. In the meanwhile, an optimal growth pattern considering both socio-economic growth and EF requirements are also found by comparing the different scenario simulation results.
Additional Information:
System dynamics (SD) was created by Professor J. Forrester in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology during the middle 1950s, which can be used to simulate and solve problems of large system. SD combines system theory, cybernetics, information theory and computer technology. Basic building blocks of a SD simulation model and its process are illustrated in Figures (a) and (b). This recently published paper was results of a EF research conducted by Dr. Shouke Wei in Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag) during the period of 2009 to 2011. The SD model in this paper includes 9 components: Population, Industry, Agriculture, Water use, Waste water treatment, Water resources, Water balance, Ecological water demand as well as EF water requirements. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first research on the application of system dynamics to simulate influences of different EF allocation levels on socio-economic development in a water scarce area. Dr. Wei is specialized in System analysis, modeling and forecasting, Data analysis and mining, Economic evaluation, Risk and uncertainty analysis, and Computer modeling software and their application in Environmental and Resources Management. Currently, Dr. Wei is working as a visiting scientist at University of British Columbia (UBC) doing a research on system dynamic model of forest adaptation measures on climate changes. He is also acting as president of Emodlogic Technology Inc. (www.emodlogic.com), a company in British Columbia, Canada, which focuses on environmental model consulting, research and development.
