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Ocean Engineering, Volume 44, April 2012, Pages 23-32
Natalya N. Warner, Philippe E. Tissot
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA
Conrad Blucher Institute, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA
Abstract
The combination of sealevelrise and population growth in coastal regions makes it essential to continue improving flood management strategies. Flooding estimates must take into account both local vertical land motion and estimated rates of sealevelrise linked to global climate change. Several extreme value distributions are compared using multiple statistical measures for the modeling of maximum annual storm surges based on the 105-year record of Galveston Pier 21, Texas. Increases in inundation frequencies are computed based on two possible sealevelrise scenarios, a conservative linear continuation of the past century trend, and a scenario based on the upper limit of the sealevel range in the IPCC AR4 report, i.e. the A1FI scenario. The research shows that by the year 2100 exceedance probabilities may double for the impact of the largest storms such as Hurricane Ike, but may increase by 6–7 times for the smaller surges associated locally with the impact of storms such as Hurricanes Cindy, Alicia, and Rita. While individually not as devastating or costly as large hurricanes, the cumulative and regular cost of smaller surge events could well be a bigger threat to coastal communities as sealevelrises.
